Wine Advisor: The World of Wine in 2058

[Robin Garr]

Wine Advisor: The World of Wine in 2058

Fifty years ago, the top-selling wines at London's Berry Bros. & Rudd (and likely throughout the UK and much of the U.S.) were German, fortified and sweet wines.

"It's strange to see how fashions have changed," reports the respected London wine merchant, "BBR" for short. "now, they don't even feature on the best-sellers list. Fifty years ago, it would have been unthinkable to take wine lessons 'virtually' or predict supermarket shelves would be stocked with wines from China, Brazil, India or New Mexico."

If the world wine market has changed so much in the past 50 years, what wonders might the next half-century hold?

Based on interviews with its wine experts, including four Masters of Wine, the 310-year-old London firm has prepared an intriguing report, A Glimpse into the World of Wine in 2058.

"So, what will 2058 look like?" In an introduction to the report, BBR Chairman Simon Berry summarized: "We looked at future trends in fine wine (our speciality) but also in volume production – wines for under £10. Whether it's the 'Rise of China' or the 'New New World,' 'Big Brand Booze,' 'Floating Vines' or 'Sommelier Bees', this report aims to give you a glimpse into the world of wine in 2058."

Berrys has kindly given me permission to make the full 12-page report available to readers. You're welcome to download it, in PDF format, at
http://www.wineloverspage.com/berry2058.pdf
In the meantime, I thought you might enjoy a few quick highlights.

"Volume Wine"

In the world of "volume wine" - modest, mass-produced wines intended for sale at £10 in the UK - Berry's experts foresee radical changes in sources and marketing. China and India are likely to become major world players, and climate change may redraw the wine map of Europe. "Countries like Ukraine, Moldova, Croatia, Slovenia and Poland could feature more prominently, especially when they attract investment." Furthermore, Canada - now ranking No. 32 in world wine production, "could start to rival its American neighbour by 2058."

The future could be disastrous for Australia, though. With droughts, water shortages and increasing heat Down Under, Berry's predicts that by 2058 "Australia will be too hot and arid to support large areas of vine. It will no longer be renowned for volume wine and will become, instead, a niche producer, concentrating on hand-crafted, terroir-driven, fine wine."

"Big Brand Booze"

With Foster's, the biggest all-Australian wine company, already starting a trend by sourcing wine for its popular Lindemans brand from South Africa and Chile, BBR foresees "big brand wine" being marketed by grape or blend rather than from a particular country.

"Grapes will be gathered from all over the world and blended to suit consumers' tastes. Increasingly, consumers may recognise wine brands (and the flavours associated with them) in the same way they do spirit brands such as Smirnoff. ... Rather than ordering a glass of Australian Shiraz, Marlborough Sauvignon Blanc or Californian Merlot, it could be commonplace to ask for a 'Lindemans Light', 'Waitrose White' or 'Rosemount Red'."

"Floating Vines"

Broad changes in production methods will be needed to meet growing consumer demand. Berrys predicts vast industrial vineyards growing genetically-modified grapes, and genetically altered yeast to improve fermentation and help produce lower-alcohol wines. What's more, genetically modified vines could be grown hydroponically in vineyards floating offshore in coastal regions.

"Lightening the load"

Watch for the demise of the glass bottle. As retailers and importers seek to cut costs and waste in international shipment, lightweight containers will replace the heavy glass wine bottle. "In the future, we're likely to see 'wine tankers' crossing our oceans. Bulk shipments of wine could arrive, before being put into plastic or reinforced cardboard containers."

"World Wine Wars"

Rising global demand for fine wines and limited availability of top-tier wines means prices will continue to rise inexorably until fine wine becomes the preserve of the very rich.

Global bidding wars for the top wines and the most sought-after wines, combined with burgeoning interest in fine wine in Asia, South America, Central and Eastern Europe and Russia, will create a market so competitive that a case of wine from a great vintage could cost £10 million.

"Alternatives to Cork"

"Berrys believes, despite all the protestations of improvement from the cork industry, it is still outrageous to accept a failure rate even as low as 2 percent in wine closures. Future generations will look back on this era in amazement at the thought that, after all the technological advances made in the vineyard and cellar, we continued to finish off the process by shoving a piece of tree bark in the bottle."

As more modern wineries are moving to the metal screwcap. it will become the standard for the majority of the world's wines.

Alun Griffiths MW predicts, "It is inconceivable we will be using cork in 50 years' time – except for perhaps 1 or 2 percent of very fine wines that still require maturation."

There's more, much more, in the colorful 12-page report, which we've made available at
http://www.wineloverspage.com/berry2058.pdf
In any case, for those who hope to be around in 2058, there's no question that it's going to be a whole new world of wine.

Meanwhile, take time to visit the Berry Bros. & Rudd Website, http://www.bbr.com. Not just a merchant site, it's one of the world's most comprehensive wine-information destinations, with loads of useful information about grapes and wine, wine maps and vintage charts and more.

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Hopefully, if transportation and pesticide costs become high enough, we will also see a rejuvenation of small-scale artisanal wine all across the North American continent based on new-generation grapes: already the work of many viticultural scientists is geared in that direction. I am confident that despite some changes for the worse (i.e. globalized anonymity), there will also be good changes.

Some quick math shows me that I don't have to think about the year 2058!!!

[Robin Garr]

Hopefully, if transportation and pesticide costs become high enough, we will also see a rejuvenation of small-scale artisanal wine all across the North American continent based on new-generation grapes: already the work of many viticultural scientists is geared in that direction. I am confident that despite some changes for the worse (i.e. globalized anonymity), there will also be good changes.

Paul, many serious wine enthusiasts would question whether a turn to "new-generation" grapes, by which I assume you mean French-American hybrids, would be defined as "good changes."

More seriously, though, if global warming trends continue, and assuming that some semblance of civilization remains to support a fine-wine market, Canada's vineyards will thrive as Berrs suggests, but not because of ice wine or Baco Noir but because its climate will become more suitable for the noble vinifera grapes that have stood the test of time and won a commercial following.

I'm curious whether you would consider that A Good Thing because it would bring Canadian wine into the world market in a serious way, or A Bad Thing because it would eliminate the current need to plant hybrid grapes in order to make wine at all in a climate not really suitable for viticulture.

Paul, many serious wine enthusiasts would question whether a turn to "new-generation" grapes, by which I assume you mean French-American hybrids, would be defined as "good changes."

Robin! You're behind the times ... I'm not talking about the old "French-American" hybrids at all, but of the new American hybrids coming out of Minnesota and New York. We're looking far beyond Baco Noir these days into a whole new horizon of hybrids that actually do what so many have wanted: produce vinifera-type red wine and give vines that survive this climate. Marquette and the Blattner hybrids (OK, so Valentin Blattner is Swiss, I think) make really tannic reds, unlike Baco, Foch, Chambourcin, etc. "Serious" wine enthusiasts ... you surely don't mean that wine enthusiasts who believe in climatically suitable grapes for the North American terroir can't be serious at the same time?

More seriously, though, if global warming trends continue, and assuming that some semblance of civilization remains to support a fine-wine market, Canada's vineyards will thrive as Berrs suggests, but not because of ice wine or Baco Noir but because its climate will become more suitable for the noble vinifera grapes that have stood the test of time and won a commercial following.

Possibly true, but even with global warming, the Midwest will still be a continental-type setting, and I still would not put all my eggs in a vinifera basket given the possibility of the occasional severe spring frost.

I'm curious whether you would consider that A Good Thing because it would bring Canadian wine into the world market in a serious way, or A Bad Thing because it would eliminate the current need to plant hybrid grapes in order to make wine at all in a climate not really suitable for viticulture.

I completely disagree with that sentiment. We are not in a climate unsuited to viticulture - that is a myopic mentality that says we shouldn't innovate. I can't abide that. Hey, you know from years of ad nauseam back-and-forth that I don't speak from a business standpoint; I want wine to become part and parcel of our continent's culinary culture.

Some quick math shows me that I don't have to think about the year 2058!!!

Waddayamean? Heck, I'll only be 118!

John

This is a thought provoking article. However it does not address the question which is of most interest to a less than wealthy wine-lover, like me and I suspect most others on this board and to our heirs. That question is - are we going to continue getting hand-crafted wine with real character and a sense of place at affordable prices?

I can accept with some equanimity that, say, Médoc 1er grands crus, super-seconds and their right bank, Burgundian, northern Rhône and Barolo equivalents are out of reach for good when I know that a lot of crus bourgeois, lesser crus and villages Burgundies, Loire, Rhône, Chianti and so on is excellent and affordable. As long as the climate allows, I guess that France, Italy and Germany, for example, will go on producing some wine of this sort but it is harder to see this happening in new wine producing countries which I would see polarizing between industrial production and unaffordable trophy wines.