Matt
I think the latter two are 'drink now' wines, but most well made wine will last 2-3 years.
How to work out cellaring time? Near impossible, but some things can give good hints:
Track record - Has this label got a history of ageing for 20+ years? If so, then unless vintage conditions were extreme, the winemaking has changed dramatically or the winemaker just bodged the job, then there's a fair chance the latest release will last well. This is where some of the experienced critics become useful, as they may have tasted a 1986 when young and note similarities with the 2004 at the same stage.
Acidity - If it tastes soft and sweet now, without refreshing acidity, then it's likely to become fat and cloying with age.
Tannins - Firm tannins (the bit that makes your mouth feel furry) in reds can be a good sign, but if the fruit is too weak, then it will fade before the tannins leaving an empty, dry fruitless shell. This is the gamble I like taking with Barolo from Piemonte in Italy
Alcohol - Mixed views on this and I think it very much depends on the wines style. Low alcohol German rieslings have a great track record of ageing, as do Hunter Semillons (the latter picked arguably before it's ripe). However other very high alcohol wines can age very well (I understand alcohol can act as a preservative).
Judging these and other aspects of a wines look, smell and taste are an avenue you may choose to pursue in time. If you're interested, grab a copy of Michael Broadbents Wine tasting or Schusters Essential Wine tasting, which are both excellent on the subject. For now though, concentrate more on whether the wine lights your fire or not - and if so what in particular made the difference. Was it refreshing, heady, bold, silky. Choose differentiators that are important to you.
If you're interested in cellaring wine, getting the right conditions is important, but there are perfectly adequate compromises to be made.
The things to avoid are
- Direct light / sunlight over a prolonged period
- Excessive heat
- Excessive temperature variation
- Excessive vibration
- Storage next to strong smells
- Excessively dry conditions
Now many of us make compromises on these, but if the area you store wine is in the kitchen next to the oven, then the wine may deteriorate very quickly. As a starting point, the cupboard under the stairs is pretty good and could serve you very well for a long time. Whilst it's not as ideal as a dark climate controlled cellar at 13C and 70% humidity, it's a hell of a lot cheaper allowing you to buy more wine.
I hope this is of use
regards
Ian